Ventura County Civic Alliance — Livable Communities Newsletter

When the state of California issued stay-at-home orders in response to the coronavirus pandemic in late March, initial projections about the impacts on transit and transportation were dire, to say the least.  The biggest concerns were how to keep passengers and drivers safe, how to maintain service, the negative impact on transit ridership, and a decline in revenue streams that fund other transportation projects.

Transit ridership, which already had been declining, fell even further in the initial months of the pandemic as businesses closed and people followed orders to stay home.  While systems that service larger metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles and the Bay Area have been the most heavily impacted by the pandemic, even our relatively small public transit operators saw a steep drop.  Ridership was down 80 percent on VCTC’s Intercity buses and 95 percent on Metrolink in April.  Gold Coast Transit District, which serves four cities and unincorporated areas, saw ridership fall 70 percent in April.  Smaller local operators experienced even steeper drops.

Now, about eight months into the pandemic, at the Ventura County Transportation Commission (VCTC) we’re breathing a small sigh of relief.  To be sure, the transportation sector has felt the impacts of the crisis and we know that there are challenges ahead.  Yet the initial period of panic has calmed, and we are seeing encouraging signs that ridership and revenue sources have stabilized, easing initial fears of drastic cuts to service.

However, for passengers to return, they must feel confident that riding buses and trains is safe.  VCTC and other local transit systems in Ventura County have taken steps to provide that reassurance, including suspending fares early in the pandemic to reduce contact between riders and drivers.  In addition, VCTC has followed a statewide request to require everyone to wear a mask when on board and ensures its buses are thoroughly cleaned and sanitized.  VCTC also received the American Public Transportation (APTA) seal of safety, an industry standard that demonstrates a commitment to health and safety.

What to expect in the future is still a question.  It could be months or years before ridership returns to pre-pandemic levels.  VCTC, Metrolink and all other local operators saw ridership increase between July and September. Yet the people who have continued to use public transit likely are essential workers and those who have no other transportation option. With the shift to telework and online learning during the pandemic, it’s possible some riders might not ever come back.  Any resulting drop in fare revenue would mean less money to serve those community members who use public transit as a lifeline.

Fortunately, the state Legislature provided some temporary relief by passing a bill that waives financial penalties for non-compliance with farebox recovery ratios.  In addition, revenues that support transit programs in California are coming in higher than anticipated since taxes on the sale of diesel fuel did not drop as much as predicted.  Because of that and VCTC’s conservative budgeting in the face of economic woes, the State Transit Assistance revenues, which locally fund transit programs including the VCTC Intercity bus service and Metrolink commuter rail, were 40 percent higher than anticipated in the first quarter of the 2020-21 fiscal year.  That brighter revenue picture, combined with the relief provided by the Legislature, give us confidence.

While there is no positive side to a global pandemic, the stay-at-home orders briefly provided an unintended benefit:  better air quality.  When California initially issued its first stay-at-home order, the number of drivers on local highways and freeways dropped dramatically.  In April and May, daily Vehicle Miles Traveled in Ventura County declined 43 percent and 31 percent, respectively.  Fewer vehicles on highways meant fewer emissions and greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.

That trend likely won’t last, however.  Over the past several months, the state and County of Ventura have gradually eased stay-at-home orders.  Businesses have started to reopen, sending many employees back to their workplaces and giving residents the opportunity to return to stores and restaurants.  In a sign that vehicle traffic is returning to pre-pandemic levels, daily Vehicle Miles Traveled in Ventura County have continued to increase after the initial shutdown. In August, VMT was down just 16 percent from a year earlier, and lo and behold we started seeing bumper-to-bumper traffic on US 101.

The effects of COVID-19 on transportation and public transit have not escaped the attention of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who cited both in an executive order on climate change issued in September amid the worst wildfire season in California history.  The governor, calling California’s situation “a climate crisis,” directed the state Air Resources Board to create a plan to end the sale of new gas-powered cars and light-duty trucks by 2035 and heavy-duty trucks by 2045.  In his order, the governor cited a drop in demand for fossil fuels due to the pandemic.  He highlighted public transit (both buses and passenger trains) and bicycle and pedestrian options as key to helping the state curb the effects of climate change, while also noting COVID-19’s adverse effect on public transit and the challenges to providing transportation services in the future.

What will it take to overcome these challenges?  Progress will require creative thinking; strategic planning; cooperation with our regional, state and federal partners; and engagement with the community.  Yet the fact that these are costly endeavors can’t be ignored.  Adding charging stations for zero-emission vehicles and improving public transit, bicycle and pedestrian options will require hundreds of millions of dollars.  Moving away from gas-powered vehicles means less gas tax revenue, the revenue stream that has paid for transportation projects in the United States for almost a century.

In Ventura County, that could mean less money to public transit such as bus and passenger trains.  VCTC faces additional pressure because Ventura County, unlike every other county in Southern California, lacks a voter-approved local transportation revenue stream to pay for transportation projects and public transit services.  Meeting these challenges, therefore, may very well require that VCTC makes some difficult choices down the road.