Ventura County Taxpayers Association (VCTA) releases 1st quarter economic report

Where is the Ventura County Economic Momentum in 2025?

The County’s labor market generated 4,692 jobs in 2024, representing a growth rate of 1.5 percent, which was similar to the aggregate of other Southern California Counties.

Also indicative of the broader region was the very narrowly based participation within the labor market. Three sectors of the economy were responsible for all of the job gains:

Consequently, momentum in the labor markets is generally absent in Ventura County and its adjacent neighbors as the first quarter of the new year evolves.

Despite the lack of a broad based job creation, the rate of unemployment remains low, indicative of a regional labor market close to full employment. The December 2024 rate was 4.7 percent, slightly lower than the December 2023 rate, and showing no evident direction coming into 2025.

In 2024, trade at the Port of Hueneme was valued at $17.9 billion, an increase of 10.7 percent over the total dollar trade volume during the calendar year 2023. The growth of cargo values has been impressive since 2020.

We were very bullish on the rate of new development in Ventura County during 2024. By the end of the year, an estimated 1,759 new housing units had been permitted, the highest one-year total since 2017. Most of the new housing projects are apartments in Oxnard, Camarillo, and Moorpark. Moreover, Oxnard and Camarillo account for over half of all new housing in Ventura County.

Ventura County’s retail sector stagnated in 2024. Total taxable retail sales were slightly less than those in 2023 and adjusted for inflation, sales were down 3.3 percent. Inflated product prices, along with a declining population, are responsible for lower total retail expenditures in the county.

Moreover, retail spending behavior is dominated by a switch toward services, including restaurants and bars, and away from goods. Food and beverage sales were 2.4 percent higher in 2024 than the previous year. There is also higher demand for travel, evidenced by transient lodging revenues, hotel occupancy rates, and passenger counts at the principal airports in California.

The median selling price of all homes sold for the calendar year just ended was $929,188, a 3.4 percent increase over 2023.  Sales, however, are at recession-level lows. There were about 200 more sales in 2024 than in 2023, but nevertheless, the volume of sales over the last 2 years is the lowest on a record that starts in 1979.

High mortgage rates combined with abysmally low inventory levels result in fewer sales at higher prices. This condition is unlikely to change much until the financing environment for purchasing housing meaningfully changes. While the consensus of economic forecasters has long-term rates falling this year, the amount of the decline will not induce a significant rally in the existing home market. With the highest selling values on record, there are fewer buyers that can qualify for a 70 or 80 percent of value mortgage.

The regional economy grew modestly in 2024 with little evidence of accelerating momentum in any particular sector other than import and export trade volumes through the Port of Hueneme.

The unemployment rate has leveled off after rising in late 2023 and early 2024. It remains relatively low at 4.7 percent, a full percentage point lower than the State of California.

The labor market expansion is modest and very narrowly based.

Oxnard and Camarillo are the locations of more new housing in the region. The type of housing is principally apartment projects. In all other cities, the development of new housing remains austere.

Consumer spending on taxable goods in Ventura County’s retail stores and other outlets remained stagnant in 2024. Adjusting for inflation, demand for goods declined 3.3 percent.

The existing home market remains in a recession. There is very little for sale inventory, and selling values are at record levels.

This report will be updated extensively and include the economic forecast for the next five years. The 2025 Ventura County Economic Outlook will be released at the VCTF Economic Conference in Westlake, scheduled for April 17^th. Details below and tickets available below.

Dr. Mark Schniepp is a VCTF Board Member and Economic Advisor. Dr. Schniepp is currently Director of the California Economic Forecast in Santa Barbara. The Company prepares forecasts and commentary on the regional economies of California.

About the Ventura County Taxpayers Foundation

The Ventura County Taxpayer’s Foundation (VCTF) is a non-partisan 501(C)(3) organization emphasizing issues that affect Ventura County. Empowering Taxpayers, Building Trust, and Safeguarding Resources.

Ventura County Taxpayers Foundation

PO Box 3878

Ventura, CA 93006

www.vctax.org