Organization also announces annual meeting in conjunction with VCEDA’s annual installation on Jan. 19
By Bruce Stenslie / President/CEO, Economic Development Collaborative-Ventura County
California’s Labor Market Information Division released its November 2011 report earlier today (Dec. 16), continuing for a fourth month in row improvements across nearly all key indicators. Most notably, unemployment remains under 10% for the second month in row, at 9.5%, down from 9.8% in October. For the details see www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$pds.pdf
Not quite matching the good news on the unemployment rate, job creation is more tepid and mixed, with a net monthly gain of only 900 jobs in the non-farm industries. Following are some observations on what’s behind the data:
- First, on employment, our improved position resulted from a combination of adding 1,200 more employed workers (good news) and losing another 400 workers from the total labor force (bad news). This latter is not helpful, having people dropping out of the productive economy entirely. To no one’s surprise, this decline in the local labor force parallels a similar drop in the national data released earlier this month.
- Ventura County’s total industry employment for November is actually down, by 1,100 jobs, owing to a seasonal decline of 2,000 jobs in agriculture. The drop in Farm employment is no cause for alarm, following as it does a similar pattern over the last several years.
- Leading the job gains in the non-farm industries are two sectors, Retail Trade, 1,300 jobs and Local Education, 800 jobs.
- Looking first at Retail Trade, the gain of 1,300 jobs in the first month of the holiday season is not unexpected but still very welcome. By comparison, last year’s gain, for the two month period October to December, was only a disappointing 1,500 jobs. With even a moderately decent December, we’ll be back on track in this sector, above our 10 year average gain for the holiday season of 2,130 jobs. This year’s higher level of hiring is either being driven by or anticipating more consumer traffic and demand in the region’s retail stores. Whichever the case, it’s good news.
- The increase by 800 jobs in Local Education is even better news. We had expressed our concerns in September that Local Education hiring was at that time way down. More than making up for that, however, are the hires reported in October and November, which together provide an increase of 2,300 jobs. The state and larger education system are by no means out of the woods, but our current standing of 20,400 jobs in Local Education is the highest it’s been since 2003. More teachers and support staff in our schools can only be good for kids and for preparing our next generation’s workforce talent.
- The November numbers deliver a couple of other surprises. One, Employment Services hiring is down this month by 200 jobs, after being flat last month. The conventional wisdom is that we should be seeing an increase in this sector, an indication in a recovering economy as employers add jobs, though cautiously. One interpretation for the decline could be that employers in most sectors are so cautious and concerned for the future that they’re not ready to add employees even on a temporary basis. Another might be that this deep into a recovery–weak as it is–Employment Services just isn’t any more an “early” indicator of employer sentiment on hiring. I’m thinking more and more it’s the latter.
- The other surprise is that we lost another 300 jobs in Construction. We all get it that there’s not a lot of building going on, but I had thought–or hoped–the sector was already as low as it could go, down in jobs by over half since the sector’s high point in June 2006, at 21,400 jobs. The current state of 10,200 jobs is the same as our recession-era low, recorded earlier this year, in January. Without putting the trades and construction workers back to work we’ll not make any substantial and lasting improvements in our unemployment rate, as “statistically” they represent as much as a quarter of our unemployment.
- Finally, for a look at our relative position among California’s counties, Ventura County remained at 12th out of 58. The comparative numbers may be viewed at www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/1111pcou.pdf
Any questions about the data or report, please let me know.
Bruce Stenslie, EDC-VC, 805.384.1800, ext. 24, bruce.stenslie@edc-vc.com
